Jeju United FC 0-2 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Jeju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeju United FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023, 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jeju United FC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Daejeon Citizen away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Daejeon Citizen — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 55% versus Daejeon Citizen 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 50% | Daejeon Citizen 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.49 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.959 / defence 1.079 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.970 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Daejeon Citizen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Jeju United FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Jeju United FC games / 33 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 44% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 30%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Daejeon Citizen 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 50% | Daejeon Citizen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 44% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Jeju United FC 1.49 / Daejeon Citizen 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.959 / def 1.079 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.970 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Daejeon Citizen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Jeju United FC 0 - 2 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 44% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.74
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.18
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
7%
15.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.18 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 11W 10D 17L from 38 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Daejeon Citizen, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 11L across 38 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.13 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 5W 7D 7L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daejeon Citizen's away record stands at 4W 9D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.53 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 63%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.16 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jeju United FC
2
Draws
4
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 4, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 0-0 Daejeon Citizen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 58%, Daejeon Citizen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Jeju United FC) and 58% (Daejeon Citizen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Daejeon Citizen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jeju United FC's games and 68% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Jeju United FC's matches and 58% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daejeon Citizen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Jeju United FC 0-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 4, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.49 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.18 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Daejeon Citizen attack 0.97 / defence 1.26, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 44% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 30%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 50%, Daejeon Citizen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.13 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.