Incheon United 0-1 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Incheon United at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Seongnam FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Incheon United and Seongnam FC meet at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Current Form
Incheon United's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Sungui Arena Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park.
Seongnam FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Incheon United. A 0.70 PPG lead over Seongnam FC (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Incheon United lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Incheon United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Incheon United — key trading statistics (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Seongnam FC — key trading statistics (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 52% versus Seongnam FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 56% | Seongnam FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.14 xG and Seongnam FC 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.887 / defence 0.949 | Seongnam FC attack 0.684 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.125. Seongnam FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Incheon United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Incheon United games / 28 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 45% | Draw 32% | Seongnam FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Seongnam FC 4.35. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Incheon United are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 40% | Seongnam FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 45% | Draw 32% | Seongnam FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Incheon United 1.14 / Seongnam FC 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.887 / def 0.949 | Seongnam FC attack 0.684 / def 1.297 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Seongnam FC xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Seongnam FC?
Incheon United 0 - 1 Seongnam FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Seongnam FC part of?
Incheon United vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 45% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Incheon United and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Seongnam FC?
Record (2 meetings): Incheon United 2W | Draws 0 | Seongnam FC 0W.
What form are Incheon United and Seongnam FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Seongnam FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Incheon United's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Seongnam FC's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.68x) against Incheon United's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
45%
2.23
32%
3.10
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.87
0.73
Seongnam FC xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
7%
13.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.73 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Incheon United's recent record stands at 10W 6D 11L from 27 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Seongnam FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 12L across 27 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Incheon United against 1.00 for Seongnam FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Incheon United have managed 6W 5D 3L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Seongnam FC's away record stands at 2W 6D 6L across 14 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Incheon United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Incheon United are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.85 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 27 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Blended
Seongnam FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 10W 6D 11L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Seongnam FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.64 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Incheon United
1
Draws
2
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 4, Seongnam FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when Seongnam FC 3-1 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Seongnam FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 43%, Seongnam FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Incheon United) and 43% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 36% of games; Seongnam FC in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Incheon United's recent matches and 43% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Incheon United's recent games and 43% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Seongnam FC defy the odds to beat Incheon United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat Incheon United 0-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.14 xG and Seongnam FC 0.73 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Incheon United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against Seongnam FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.30, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 45% | Draw 32% | Seongnam FC 23%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Seongnam FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 56%, Seongnam FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.33 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Seongnam FC win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.