Incheon United 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Incheon United at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Incheon United welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Sungui Arena Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 March 2022 at 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.83 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.829 / defence 0.891 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.642 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 0.906. Data: 37 Incheon United games / 4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 40% | Draw 38% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.50 | Draw 2.63 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 15% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.35. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 85% probability — total xG of 1.35 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Incheon United are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 15% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 40% | Draw 38% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 15% | BTTS 23% | xG Incheon United 0.83 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.52 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.829 / def 0.891 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.642 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.058 / away 0.906 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.52
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
23%
BTTS
39%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Incheon United 1 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 40% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 21% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 15%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Incheon United home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.83) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 0.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 27.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (20.1%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 60% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
40%
2.48
38%
2.61
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.35
0.52
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.48
40%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
39%
Over 1.5
2.56
61%
Under 1.5
1.64
15%
Over 2.5
6.67
85%
Under 2.5
1.18
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.38
77%
BTTS No
1.30
Clean Sheet
60%
1.68
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.9 | 13.4 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.6 | 11.2 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 27.4%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.52 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 1.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Incheon United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Incheon United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Incheon United
2
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Incheon United edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.83 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.52 xG, a combined 1.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.64 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 40% | Draw 38% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 21%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 15%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 39% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.