Incheon United 0-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees FC Anyang travel to Sungui Arena Park to take on Incheon United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Incheon United — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 3W 0D 5L from 8 K League 1 appearances (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Anyang have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Anyang have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Incheon United at 1.40 PPG versus FC Anyang's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Incheon United, 0 for FC Anyang and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Incheon United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Incheon United in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Incheon United 50% and FC Anyang 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 56% | FC Anyang 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.02 xG and FC Anyang 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.979 / defence 1.023 | FC Anyang attack 1.104 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.279. Data: 16 Incheon United games / 49 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 25% | Draw 29% | FC Anyang 46%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | FC Anyang 2.17. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Anyang are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 50% | FC Anyang 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 25% | Draw 29% | FC Anyang 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Incheon United 1.02 / FC Anyang 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.979 / def 1.023 | FC Anyang attack 1.104 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.44
FC Anyang xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs FC Anyang kick off?
Incheon United vs FC Anyang kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 12 July 2026 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs FC Anyang?
Incheon United 0 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Incheon United vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs FC Anyang part of?
Incheon United vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 25% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Incheon United and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and FC Anyang?
Record (1 meetings): Incheon United 1W | Draws 0 | FC Anyang 0W.
What form are Incheon United and FC Anyang in?
Incheon United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. FC Anyang (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Incheon United's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FC Anyang's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
25%
3.96
29%
3.43
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.46
1.44
FC Anyang xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.80
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Incheon United and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.44 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Incheon United's recent record stands at 6W 3D 7L from 16 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Anyang, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 4L across 16 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.31 PPG, FC Anyang on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Incheon United have managed 3W 0D 5L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Anyang's away record stands at 3W 4D 1L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Anyang come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Incheon United are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.31 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 75%.
Last 16 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Blended
FC Anyang
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 4W 8D 4L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or FC Anyang away?
FC Anyang's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.12 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Incheon United or FC Anyang been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Anyang in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Incheon United and FC Anyang runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Anyang have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Incheon United
0
Draws
2
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and FC Anyang?
From 3 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 1, FC Anyang have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when FC Anyang 2-1 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and FC Anyang?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Anyang see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 50%, FC Anyang 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Incheon United) and 38% (FC Anyang).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Incheon United's games and 75% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Incheon United vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Incheon United's recent games and 38% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Anyang edge out Incheon United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Incheon United 0-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.02 xG and FC Anyang 1.44 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Incheon United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against FC Anyang attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 25% | Draw 29% | FC Anyang 46%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 56%, FC Anyang 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Anyang's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.31 PPG, FC Anyang 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Anyang (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.