Gwangju FC 1-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Anyang at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Gwangju FC welcome FC Anyang to Gwangju Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gwangju FC have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gwangju FC have posted 0W 3D 7L at Gwangju Football Stadium — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Anyang stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Anyang have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. FC Anyang's 1.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Gwangju FC's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Gwangju FC have won 3, FC Anyang 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gwangju FC trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
FC Anyang trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 42% versus FC Anyang 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 42% | FC Anyang 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.07 xG and FC Anyang 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.757 / defence 1.333 | FC Anyang attack 1.006 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.321. Gwangju FC's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Gwangju FC games / 61 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 21% | Draw 28% | FC Anyang 51%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | FC Anyang 1.96. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Gwangju FC dominate the H2H record, yet FC Anyang are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 50% | FC Anyang 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 21% | Draw 28% | FC Anyang 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Gwangju FC 1.07 / FC Anyang 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.757 / def 1.333 | FC Anyang attack 1.006 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.77
FC Anyang xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Gwangju FC 1 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 21% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gwangju FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang?
Record (6 meetings): Gwangju FC 3W | Draws 2 | FC Anyang 1W.
What form are Gwangju FC and FC Anyang in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. FC Anyang (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gwangju FC's attack rating (0.76) and FC Anyang's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
21%
4.85
28%
3.57
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.85
1.77
FC Anyang xG
4.85
21%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
4%
28.54
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.77 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 16W 19D 31L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Anyang's form line: 22W 17D 27L from 66 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.02 PPG, FC Anyang on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.03 PPG from 33 outings (9W 7D 17L).
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 11W 8D 14L from 33 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gwangju FC are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.27 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 65%.
Last 66 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 16W 19D 31L in their last 66 games (1.02 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 22W 17D 27L in their last 66 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or FC Anyang away?
FC Anyang's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.03 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when FC Anyang won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Gwangju FC
3
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang?
From 7 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 3, FC Anyang have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 48%, FC Anyang 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gwangju FC) and 52% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Gwangju FC's games and 67% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 52% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gwangju FC and FC Anyang share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Gwangju FC and FC Anyang drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.07 xG and FC Anyang 1.77 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.33 against FC Anyang attack 1.01 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 21% | Draw 28% | FC Anyang 51%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 42%, FC Anyang 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
FC Anyang's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.02 PPG, FC Anyang 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.