Gimpo Citizen 0-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gangwon FC make the trip to Gimpo Salter Soccer Field to face Gimpo Citizen in K League 1, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 10:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gangwon FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gangwon FC away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimpo Citizen 0.95 xG and Gangwon FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimpo Citizen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Gangwon FC attack 0.852 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.131. Data: 0 Gimpo Citizen games / 66 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimpo Citizen 30% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Gimpo Citizen 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Gangwon FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Gimpo Salter Soccer Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Dec 2023, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimpo Citizen 30% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Gimpo Citizen 0.95 / Gangwon FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Gimpo Citizen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Gangwon FC attack 0.852 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Gimpo Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Gangwon FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at Gimpo Salter Soccer Field.
What was the final score in Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Gimpo Citizen 0 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimpo Salter Soccer Field.
What competition is Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC part of?
Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC is a Relegation Round fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimpo Citizen a 30% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gimpo Citizen and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimpo Citizen and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimpo Citizen and Gangwon FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Gangwon FC away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gimpo Citizen's attack rating (0.85) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.85x) against Gimpo Citizen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 0/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
30%
3.30
31%
3.19
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Gimpo Citizen xG
Total xG
2.06
1.11
Gangwon FC xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.1 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gimpo Citizen and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Gimpo Citizen and 1.11 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimpo Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimpo Citizen
Pre-Season
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gimpo Citizen
1
Draws
1
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimpo Citizen and Gangwon FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Gimpo Citizen have won 0, Gangwon FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gimpo Citizen and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 December 2023, when Gangwon FC 2-1 Gimpo Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Gimpo Citizen and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimpo Citizen home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Gimpo Citizen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimpo Citizen and Gangwon FC finished level at 0-0 at Gimpo Salter Soccer Field, Relegation Round, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimpo Citizen 0.95 xG and Gangwon FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gimpo Citizen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Gangwon FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimpo Citizen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Gangwon FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 0/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimpo Citizen 30% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 38%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.