Gangwon FC 1-2 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Suwon Bluewings travel to Gangneung Stadium to take on Gangwon FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 July 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gangwon FC — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Gangneung Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gangwon FC at 0.60 PPG versus Suwon Bluewings's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gangwon FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Suwon Bluewings in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Gangwon FC have won 2, Suwon Bluewings 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gangwon FC trading profile (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 51% versus Suwon Bluewings 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 39% | Suwon Bluewings 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.08 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.755 / defence 1.090 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.981 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.179. Gangwon FC's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Gangwon FC games / 56 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 30% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 39%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Suwon Bluewings 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Gangwon FC 60% | Suwon Bluewings 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 30% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Gangwon FC 1.08 / Suwon Bluewings 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.755 / def 1.090 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.981 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Suwon Bluewings xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Gangwon FC 1 - 2 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 30% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (8 meetings): Gangwon FC 2W | Draws 4 | Suwon Bluewings 2W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gangwon FC's attack at 0.76x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
30%
3.36
31%
3.18
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.26
Suwon Bluewings xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.26 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC's recent record stands at 16W 17D 28L from 61 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon Bluewings, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 29L across 61 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.07 PPG, Suwon Bluewings on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gangwon FC have managed 9W 7D 13L from 29 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon Bluewings's away record stands at 7W 8D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.11 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 16W 17D 28L in their last 61 games (1.07 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 14W 18D 29L in their last 61 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.17 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gangwon FC
5
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 2, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 55%, Suwon Bluewings 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gangwon FC) and 55% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC have failed to score in 31% of games; Suwon Bluewings in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Gangwon FC's games and 62% of Suwon Bluewings's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 55% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon Bluewings edge out Gangwon FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Gangwon FC 1-2 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.08 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.26 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 30% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 39%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 39%, Suwon Bluewings 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.07 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.