Gangwon FC 0-2 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Suwon Bluewings travel to Chuncheon Songam Stadium to take on Gangwon FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gangwon FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Gangwon FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gangwon FC at 1.30 PPG versus Suwon Bluewings's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gangwon FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Suwon Bluewings in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Gangwon FC have won 2, Suwon Bluewings 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gangwon FC trading profile (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 53% versus Suwon Bluewings 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 50% | Suwon Bluewings 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.19 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.913 / defence 1.047 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.840 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.248. Data: 45 Gangwon FC games / 45 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 38% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 34%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Suwon Bluewings 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Gangwon FC 70% | Suwon Bluewings 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 38% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Gangwon FC 1.19 / Suwon Bluewings 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.913 / def 1.047 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.840 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Suwon Bluewings xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Gangwon FC 0 - 2 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 38% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (7 meetings): Gangwon FC 2W | Draws 4 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gangwon FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.50
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.28
1.10
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.10 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC's recent record stands at 25W 20D 33L from 78 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Suwon Bluewings, meanwhile, have gone 24W 22D 32L across 78 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.22 PPG, Suwon Bluewings on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gangwon FC have managed 16W 11D 11L from 38 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon Bluewings's away record stands at 12W 9D 17L across 38 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.13 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 78 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 25W 20D 33L in their last 78 games (1.22 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 24W 22D 32L in their last 78 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gangwon FC
5
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 2, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 53%, Suwon Bluewings 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gangwon FC) and 47% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 42% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 47% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Suwon Bluewings cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Gangwon FC 0-2 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.19 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.10 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gangwon FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Suwon Bluewings outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 38% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 34%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Suwon Bluewings win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 50%, Suwon Bluewings 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.22 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.