FC Seoul 0-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Seoul (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Seoul face Suwon Bluewings.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 4 as FC Seoul welcome Suwon Bluewings to Seoul World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Seoul — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Seoul at Seoul World Cup Stadium this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Seoul World Cup Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon Bluewings have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Seoul carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Seoul register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Suwon Bluewings in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: FC Seoul have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Suwon Bluewings have managed just 2 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with FC Seoul winning.
The historical record gives FC Seoul a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Seoul trading profile (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 60% versus Suwon Bluewings 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 46% | Suwon Bluewings 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.75 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.107 / defence 1.121 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.898 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Suwon Bluewings bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing FC Seoul's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 FC Seoul games / 66 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 51% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon Bluewings 4.17. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Seoul as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FC Seoul 60% | Suwon Bluewings 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 51% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Seoul 1.75 / Suwon Bluewings 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.107 / def 1.121 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.898 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Suwon Bluewings xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings?
FC Seoul 0 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 51% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (9 meetings): FC Seoul 6W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 2W.
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Seoul's attack at 1.11x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
51%
1.96
25%
4.07
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.88
1.14
Suwon Bluewings xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
4%
23.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.14 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Seoul come into this having played 74 games, going 25W 25D 24L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Suwon Bluewings sit at 1.00 PPG from 74 outings (18W 20D 36L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Seoul on 1.35 PPG, Suwon Bluewings on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Seoul's home form reads 13W 12D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon Bluewings have taken 1.00 points per game from 36 outings (9W 9D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Seoul come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Seoul are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.07 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 74 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 25W 25D 24L in their last 74 games (1.35 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 18W 20D 36L in their last 74 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.42 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Seoul
1
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 6, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 25 November 2023, when FC Seoul 0-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 61%, Suwon Bluewings 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Seoul) and 56% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Suwon Bluewings?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Seoul's games and 61% of Suwon Bluewings's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Seoul's recent games and 56% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat FC Seoul 0-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 4, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.75 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.14 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Seoul fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.11 / defence 1.12 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.90 / defence 1.28, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 51% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 24%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Suwon Bluewings win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 46%, Suwon Bluewings 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.35 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.