FC Seoul 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Daegu FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Seoul have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Seoul's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Seoul World Cup Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Daegu FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (FC Seoul) versus 1.40 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
FC Seoul in-play tendencies (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 48% versus Daegu FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 42% | Daegu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.04 xG and Daegu FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.912 / defence 1.219 | Daegu FC attack 0.750 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 0.948 / away 1.160. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing FC Seoul's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 FC Seoul games / 31 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 35% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 40% | Daegu FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 35% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG FC Seoul 1.04 / Daegu FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.912 / def 1.219 | Daegu FC attack 0.750 / def 1.208 | league avg home 0.948 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Daegu FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Daegu FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
FC Seoul 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 35% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both FC Seoul and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Daegu FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Seoul's attack at 0.91x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.34
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.11
1.06
Daegu FC xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.06 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 8W 9D 14L from 31 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 9L across 31 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Daegu FC by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Seoul heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 4W 4D 8L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 6W 3D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Seoul are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Daegu FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 8W 9D 14L in their last 31 games (1.06 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 13W 9D 9L in their last 31 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Daegu FC away?
Daegu FC's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.00 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.31 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Seoul and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 3, Daegu FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when FC Seoul 2-2 Daegu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 44%, Daegu FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC Seoul) and 50% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 31%; FC Seoul have failed to score in 44% of games; Daegu FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 50% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of FC Seoul's recent games and 50% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Daegu FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Seoul and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul and Daegu FC finished level at 1-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.04 xG and Daegu FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against Daegu FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.21, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 35% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 35%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 42%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Daegu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.