FC Seoul 3-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 38%, yet in-form Daegu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Seoul vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Daegu FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 April 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Seoul have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC Seoul's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Seoul World Cup Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Daegu FC away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Daegu FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of FC Seoul's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Seoul have won 0, Daegu FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with Daegu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Seoul in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 51% versus Daegu FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 42% | Daegu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.38 xG and Daegu FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.980 / defence 1.084 | Daegu FC attack 0.931 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.134. Data: 38 FC Seoul games / 38 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 38% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Daegu FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daegu FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FC Seoul 50% | Daegu FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 38% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Seoul 1.38 / Daegu FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.980 / def 1.084 | Daegu FC attack 0.931 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Daegu FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Daegu FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
FC Seoul 3 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 38% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Seoul and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Daegu FC?
Record (1 meetings): FC Seoul 0W | Draws 0 | Daegu FC 1W.
What form are FC Seoul and Daegu FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Seoul's attack at 0.98x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
38%
2.60
34%
2.92
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.52
1.15
Daegu FC xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.15 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 23W 24D 29L from 76 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 26D 25L across 76 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Seoul on 1.22 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 11W 11D 16L from 38 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 9W 14D 15L across 38 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Seoul are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 23W 24D 29L in their last 76 games (1.22 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Daegu FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.16 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Seoul and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 3, Daegu FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when FC Seoul 2-2 Daegu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 50%, Daegu FC 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Seoul) and 53% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul have failed to score in 32% of games; Daegu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Seoul's games and 66% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Seoul's recent games and 53% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Daegu FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Seoul run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Daegu FC 3-0 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.38 xG and Daegu FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Daegu FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 38% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 27%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 42%, Daegu FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.22 PPG, Daegu FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.