Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Daejeon Citizen host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Daejeon Citizen — All Games: 3W 0D 1L from 4 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.25 points per game. Last five: W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Daejeon Citizen have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Daejeon Citizen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.55 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.25 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Daejeon Citizen trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Daejeon Citizen 50% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Daejeon Citizen 75% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.27 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.033 / defence 0.983 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.231 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.118. Ulsan Hyundai FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Daejeon Citizen games / 39 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 32% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (2.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Daejeon Citizen 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 32% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.27 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.033 / def 0.983 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.231 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daejeon Citizen 2 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 32% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (1.03) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
32%
3.09
31%
3.19
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.62
1.35
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
8%
11.94
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.35 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Daejeon Citizen's recent record stands at 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Daejeon Citizen by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ulsan Hyundai FC heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 100%.
Defensively: Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Early Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Daejeon Citizen or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daejeon Citizen
3
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Daejeon Citizen at 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Daejeon Citizen and 75% for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 100% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Daejeon Citizen's matches and 75% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.27 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.83, drawn from 6/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 32% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 75%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.75. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.