Daegu FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Daegu FC take on Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to DGB Daegu Bank Park to face Daegu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Daegu FC, 2 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 57% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.03 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.630 / defence 0.780 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.109 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.116. Daegu FC's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Daegu FC's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Daegu FC games / 41 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Daegu FC 1.03 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.630 / def 0.780 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.109 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 33% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (3 meetings): Daegu FC 0W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W.
What form are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 0.63x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.11x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
37%
2.70
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.00
0.96
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.96 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 23W 30D 23L from 76 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 45W 17D 14L across 76 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 15W 15D 8L from 38 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 20W 9D 9L across 38 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Daegu FC
4
Draws
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Daegu FC) and 47% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Daegu FC's recent games and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daegu FC 1-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.03 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.63 / defence 0.78 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 33% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 46%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.