Daegu FC 3-1 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daegu FC and Seongnam FC meet at DGB Arena in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Daegu FC have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at DGB Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Arena. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Daegu FC are significantly better at DGB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Seongnam FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Daegu FC lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Seongnam FC half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 56% versus Seongnam FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 44% | Seongnam FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.06 xG and Seongnam FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.912 / defence 1.107 | Seongnam FC attack 0.675 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.115. Data: 25 Daegu FC games / 25 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Seongnam FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daegu FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Seongnam FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Daegu FC 1.06 / Seongnam FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.912 / def 1.107 | Seongnam FC attack 0.675 / def 1.182 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Seongnam FC xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Daegu FC 3 - 1 Seongnam FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 40% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Daegu FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (1 meetings): Daegu FC 0W | Draws 1 | Seongnam FC 0W.
What form are Daegu FC and Seongnam FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Seongnam FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.91) and Seongnam FC's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.68x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
40%
2.52
33%
3.07
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.89
0.83
Seongnam FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.83 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daegu FC come into this having played 25 games, going 9W 7D 9L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Seongnam FC sit at 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.04 for Seongnam FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Daegu FC's home form reads 5W 5D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Seongnam FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (2W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.84 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 25 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Seongnam FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 games (1.36 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Seongnam FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
4
Draws
0
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Seongnam FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2022, when Seongnam FC 4-4 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Seongnam FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 58%, Seongnam FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Daegu FC) and 42% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Seongnam FC in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 42% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Daegu FC's recent games and 42% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Seongnam FC 3-1 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.06 xG and Seongnam FC 0.83 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Seongnam FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 40% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 28%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 44%, Seongnam FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.36 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.