Daegu FC 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Daegu FC take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 2 March 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.83 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.932 / defence 1.097 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.724 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 0.918 / away 1.023. Data: 35 Daegu FC games / 2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Mar 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Daegu FC 0.83 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.932 / def 1.097 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.724 / def 0.972 | league avg home 0.918 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 33% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Daegu FC home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
35%
2.88
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.65
0.81
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.18
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.3 | 15.7 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.0%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.81 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Daegu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
3
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.83 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.81 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.72 / defence 0.97, drawn from 35/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 33% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.