Daegu FC 1-2 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Daegu FC take on Jeonbuk Motors.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 1 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 4W 6D 0L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Daegu FC at 1.60 PPG versus Jeonbuk Motors's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Daegu FC have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Daegu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 56% versus Jeonbuk Motors 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | Jeonbuk Motors 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.81 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.883 / defence 0.844 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.931 / defence 0.742. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.742 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Daegu FC games / 66 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 30% | Draw 35% | Jeonbuk Motors 35%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Daegu FC's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.70 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 40% | Jeonbuk Motors 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 30% | Draw 35% | Jeonbuk Motors 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Daegu FC 0.81 / Jeonbuk Motors 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.883 / def 0.844 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.931 / def 0.742 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Jeonbuk Motors xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Daegu FC 1 - 2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 30% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (2 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 0 | Jeonbuk Motors 1W.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 0.88x the league average against Jeonbuk Motors's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.32
35%
2.84
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.70
0.89
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.32
30%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 16.3 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.89 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 22W 29D 20L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 35W 17D 19L from 71 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.34 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.60 PPG from 35 outings (14W 14D 7L).
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 18W 6D 11L from 35 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.34 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 22W 29D 20L in their last 71 games (1.34 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 35W 17D 19L in their last 71 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
1
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 46%, Jeonbuk Motors 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Daegu FC) and 46% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 43% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Daegu FC's recent games and 46% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Daegu FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Daegu FC 1-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Championship Round - 1, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.81 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 0.89 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.84 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.93 / defence 0.74, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 30% | Draw 35% | Jeonbuk Motors 35%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 46%, Jeonbuk Motors 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.34 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.