Daegu FC 2-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 March 2023, 05:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Daegu FC at 1.80 PPG versus Jeonbuk Motors's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 58% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.35 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.970 / defence 1.020 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.091 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.113. Data: 36 Daegu FC games / 36 Jeonbuk Motors games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 37% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 32%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Jeonbuk Motors 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 37% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Daegu FC 1.35 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.970 / def 1.020 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.091 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Jeonbuk Motors xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Daegu FC 2 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 37% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Jeonbuk Motors's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.29
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.59
1.24
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.24 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 25W 26D 25L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 43W 20D 13L from 76 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Daegu FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.58 PPG from 38 outings (16W 12D 10L).
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 22W 9D 7L from 38 away games — 1.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.67 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 games (1.33 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
1
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Daegu FC) and 50% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Daegu FC's recent games and 50% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jeonbuk Motors.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.35 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.24 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 37% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 32%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Daegu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.