Daegu FC 1-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC meet at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 June 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 6D 1L at DGB Daegu Bank Park — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
Jeju United FC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jeju United FC's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Daegu FC's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Daegu FC, 1 for Jeju United FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Jeju United FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 57% versus Jeju United FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | Jeju United FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.05 xG and Jeju United FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.819 / defence 1.016 | Jeju United FC attack 0.845 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.168. Data: 49 Daegu FC games / 49 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 36% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Jeju United FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 50% | Jeju United FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 36% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Daegu FC 1.05 / Jeju United FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.819 / def 1.016 | Jeju United FC attack 0.845 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Jeju United FC xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 36% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (3 meetings): Daegu FC 2W | Draws 0 | Jeju United FC 1W.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.82) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.84x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
36%
2.76
30%
3.30
34%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.06
1.00
Jeju United FC xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.99
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.00 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 23W 30D 23L from 76 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 21D 31L across 76 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.22 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 15W 15D 8L from 38 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 14W 7D 17L across 38 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Jeju United FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Daegu FC) and 53% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 58% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Daegu FC's recent games and 53% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Jeju United FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeju United FC 1-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.05 xG and Jeju United FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeju United FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Jeju United FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 36% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 34%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 46%, Jeju United FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.30 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.