Daegu FC 3-0 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Arena plays host to Daegu FC versus Incheon United in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.56 xG and Incheon United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.933 / defence 1.238 | Incheon United attack 0.929 / defence 1.821. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 0.987. Incheon United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.821 — this is suppressing Daegu FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Daegu FC games / 13 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 46% | Draw 27% | Incheon United 27%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Incheon United 3.70. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 46% | Draw 27% | Incheon United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Daegu FC 1.56 / Incheon United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.933 / def 1.238 | Incheon United attack 0.929 / def 1.821 | league avg home 0.917 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Incheon United xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Daegu FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Daegu FC 3 - 0 Incheon United.
Where is Daegu FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Incheon United part of?
Daegu FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 46% chance of winning, Incheon United a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Daegu FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Incheon United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Incheon United's defensive record (1.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (0.93x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.69
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.13
Incheon United xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
6%
17.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.13 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
Incheon United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Incheon United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Daegu FC
5
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 1, Incheon United have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when Daegu FC 1-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Daegu FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Incheon United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Incheon United 3-0 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.56 xG and Incheon United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Incheon United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.24 against Incheon United attack 0.93 / defence 1.82, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 46% | Draw 27% | Incheon United 27%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.