Daegu FC 3-2 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Daegu FC face Gwangju FC.

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Full Analysis

DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Gwangju FC in K League 1 (matchday 12). Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Form

Daegu FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Daegu FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Gwangju FC have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Gwangju FC have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Daegu FC, 1.70 for Gwangju FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Daegu FC edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Mar 2024, ended Daegu FC 2–1 Gwangju FC — a Daegu FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 50% versus Gwangju FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Daegu FC 37% | Gwangju FC 26%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.98 xG and Gwangju FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.659 / defence 0.861 | Gwangju FC attack 1.064 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.206. Daegu FC's attack rating of 0.659 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 44 games and Gwangju FC's last 43.

Result probabilities: Daegu FC 31% | Draw 31% | Gwangju FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.22 | Draw 3.19 | Gwangju FC 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Gwangju FC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Gwangju FC 50% (last 10 away games).

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