Bucheon FC 1995 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 34%, yet in-form Bucheon FC 1995 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bucheon FC 1995 and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet at Bucheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bucheon FC 1995 have collected 3.00 PPG across 2 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 0D 0L. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bucheon FC 1995 have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in Bucheon FC 1995's favour (3.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 1.24 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.837 / defence 1.094 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.974 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.227. Data: 2 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 34 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 31% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 31% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 1.24 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.837 / def 1.094 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.974 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Bucheon FC 1995 1 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 31% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bucheon FC 1995's attack rating (0.84) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.97x) against Bucheon FC 1995's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
The sample (2/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
31%
3.19
34%
2.92
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.55
1.31
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.31 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bucheon FC 1995's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bucheon FC 1995 by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ulsan Hyundai FC heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 0%.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Bucheon FC 1995 or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bucheon FC 1995
0
Draws
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between Bucheon FC 1995 and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bucheon FC 1995 play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent matches and 0% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent games and 0% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Bucheon FC 1995 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Bucheon FC 1995 1-2 at Bucheon Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 1.24 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.05, drawn from 2/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 31% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 34%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bucheon FC 1995 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bucheon FC 1995 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bucheon FC 1995 managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.