Damac 3-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Al Okhdood at Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 September 2024 at 16:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 2W 2D 6L at Dhamak Club Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Okhdood — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Damac 0.60 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Damac, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Damac winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Okhdood trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al Okhdood 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 44% | Al Okhdood 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.09 xG and Al Okhdood 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.804 / defence 0.965 | Al Okhdood attack 0.816 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.220. Data: 36 Damac games / 36 Al Okhdood games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Damac 38% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 31%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Al Okhdood 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 20% | Al Okhdood 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 38% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Damac 1.09 / Al Okhdood 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.804 / def 0.965 | Al Okhdood attack 0.816 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Damac (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al Okhdood xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Damac vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 16:50 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Damac 3 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Damac vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Okhdood part of?
Damac vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 38% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Damac and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Okhdood?
Record (2 meetings): Damac 2W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Damac and Al Okhdood in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Damac's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.30
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Damac xG
Total xG
2.05
0.96
Al Okhdood xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Damac and 0.96 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac's recent record stands at 10W 11D 15L from 36 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Okhdood, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 21L across 36 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.14 PPG, Al Okhdood on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Damac have managed 6W 6D 6L from 18 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Okhdood's away record stands at 3W 5D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.92 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 9W 6D 21L in their last 36 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Okhdood away?
Damac's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.33 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Damac's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Damac
1
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 5, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Damac 2-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Okhdood?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 50%, Al Okhdood 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Damac) and 44% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Okhdood in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Damac's recent matches and 39% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Damac's recent games and 44% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Okhdood 3-1 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.09 xG and Al Okhdood 0.96 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Al Okhdood attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Damac 38% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 31%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 44%, Al Okhdood 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.14 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.