Damac 0-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al-Nassr travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Damac. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 January 2022, 11:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 0L across 7 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (2.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's away record: 4W 1D 3L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Damac at 1.80 PPG versus Al-Nassr's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Damac have won 0, Al-Nassr 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 1–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Nassr trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 47% versus Al-Nassr 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 27% | Al-Nassr 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 0.91 xG and Al-Nassr 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.881 / defence 0.955 | Al-Nassr attack 0.951 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.089. Data: 15 Damac games / 15 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 31% | Draw 33% | Al-Nassr 36%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Nassr 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Damac 43% | Al-Nassr 62%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 11:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 31% | Draw 33% | Al-Nassr 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Damac 0.91 / Al-Nassr 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.881 / def 0.955 | Al-Nassr attack 0.951 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al-Nassr xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Damac vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 11:50 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Damac 0 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Damac vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Nassr part of?
Damac vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 31% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Damac and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Nassr?
Record (1 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 1W.
What form are Damac and Al-Nassr in?
Damac (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Damac's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
31%
3.18
33%
3.04
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Damac xG
Total xG
1.90
0.99
Al-Nassr xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 14.8 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Damac and 0.99 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac come into this having played 15 games, going 7W 5D 3L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (8W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.73 PPG, Al-Nassr on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Damac's home form reads 4W 3D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Damac are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.86 points per game from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.60 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 67%.
Defensively: Damac have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 7W 5D 3L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 8W 2D 5L in their last 15 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Nassr away?
Damac's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 2.14 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2021, when Al-Nassr won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Damac
0
Draws
10
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 43%, Al-Nassr 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Damac and 43% for Al-Nassr.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Damac's recent matches and 57% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Damac's recent games and 43% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Damac 0-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.91 xG and Al-Nassr 0.99 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Damac fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.88 / defence 0.95 against Al-Nassr attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 31% | Draw 33% | Al-Nassr 36%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 27%, Al-Nassr 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.73 PPG, Al-Nassr 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.