Damac 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 January 2022 at 11:55 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 4W 3D 1L at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 1.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 1W 3D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Damac at 1.50 PPG versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Damac, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Damac in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 47% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Damac 29% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.16 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.810 / defence 1.065 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.762 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.171. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Damac games / 17 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 40% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 29%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Damac 38% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 11:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 40% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Damac 1.16 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.810 / def 1.065 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.762 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Damac (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 11:55 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Damac 1 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (1 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Damac (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.81x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.19
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Damac xG
Total xG
2.11
0.95
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Damac and 0.95 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Damac have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 8W 5D 4L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 4W 7D 6L from 17 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Damac are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.24 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Damac have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Damac's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.88 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Damac
3
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Damac have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 38%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Damac and 38% for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Damac's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Damac's recent games and 38% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.16 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.95 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.76 / defence 1.30, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 40% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 29%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 29%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.