Damac 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 1W 4D 5L at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ahli Jeddah — 2.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ahli Jeddah, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Damac.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Damac in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 57% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 0.71 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.753 / defence 0.988 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.090 / defence 0.639. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.393. Damac's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.639 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Damac games / 56 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 17% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%. Fair-value odds: Damac 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Damac 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 23 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 17% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Damac 0.71 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.753 / def 0.988 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.090 / def 0.639 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 February 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Damac 0 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 17% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (6 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W.
What form are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.75x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
17%
5.81
27%
3.71
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Damac xG
Total xG
2.21
1.50
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
5.81
17%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
4%
26.06
28%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Damac and 1.50 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Damac have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 11W 17D 28L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 37W 9D 10L from 56 games, 2.14 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (7W 9D 11L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 17W 3D 7L from 27 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.02 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 11W 17D 28L in their last 56 games (0.89 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 37W 9D 10L in their last 56 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.11 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Damac
3
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Damac have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 63%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Damac) and 37% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 52%; Damac have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Damac's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Damac's recent games and 37% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Damac 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Damac 0-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.71 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.75 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.09 / defence 0.64, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 17% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.