Damac 1-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Abha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Damac 1.00 PPG, Abha 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Damac have won 2, Abha 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Abha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Abha in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 53% versus Abha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 47% | Abha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.39 xG and Abha 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.788 / defence 1.008 | Abha attack 0.741 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.238. Damac's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Damac games / 57 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 48% | Draw 27% | Abha 25%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Abha 4.00. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Damac 50% | Abha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 48% | Draw 27% | Abha 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Damac 1.39 / Abha 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.788 / def 1.008 | Abha attack 0.741 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Damac (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Abha xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Abha kick off?
Damac vs Abha kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 22 May 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Abha?
Damac 1 - 0 Abha.
Where is Damac vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Abha part of?
Damac vs Abha is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 48% chance of winning, Abha a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Damac and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Abha?
Record (3 meetings): Damac 2W | Draws 0 | Abha 1W.
What form are Damac and Abha in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Abha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Damac's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.67
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Damac xG
Total xG
2.32
0.92
Abha xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Damac and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Damac and 0.92 for Abha, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac come into this having played 57 games, going 20W 16D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Abha sit at 1.19 PPG from 57 outings (19W 11D 27L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.33 PPG, Abha on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Damac's home form reads 11W 10D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Abha have taken 0.64 points per game from 28 outings (5W 3D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.04 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Abha in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Abha have gone 19W 11D 27L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Abha away?
Damac's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.54 PPG; Abha away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Damac's record when hosting Abha specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Damac
1
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 4, Abha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Abha 0-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Abha?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 54%, Abha 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Damac) and 50% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Abha in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Damac's recent matches and 46% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Damac's recent games and 50% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Abha tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Abha in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Abha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Abha 1-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.39 xG and Abha 0.92 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Abha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Abha attack 0.74 / defence 1.21, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 48% | Draw 27% | Abha 25%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 47%, Abha 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Abha's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.33 PPG, Abha 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.