Damac 3-2 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Damac take on Abha.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Abha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 12:10 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 4W 4D 1L from 9 Pro League appearances (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Damac are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 2W 2D 5L from 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Abha are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Damac have won 1, Abha 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Damac winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Abha in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 50% versus Abha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Damac 35% | Abha 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.00 xG and Abha 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.776 / defence 1.056 | Abha attack 0.746 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.166. Damac's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Damac games / 20 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 35% | Draw 35% | Abha 30%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | Abha 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Damac 44% | Abha 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 12:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 35% | Draw 35% | Abha 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Damac 1.00 / Abha 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.776 / def 1.056 | Abha attack 0.746 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Abha xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Abha kick off?
Damac vs Abha kicked off at 12:10 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Abha?
Damac 3 - 2 Abha.
Where is Damac vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Abha part of?
Damac vs Abha is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 35% chance of winning, Abha a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Damac and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Abha?
Record (1 meetings): Damac 1W | Draws 0 | Abha 0W.
What form are Damac and Abha in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Abha (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Damac's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
35%
2.84
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Damac xG
Total xG
1.92
0.92
Abha xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Damac and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Damac and 0.92 for Abha, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 6D 6L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Abha sit at 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.50 PPG, Abha on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Damac's home form reads 4W 4D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Abha have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.05 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Abha in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 8W 6D 6L in their last 20 games (1.50 PPG), while Abha have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Abha away?
Damac's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.78 PPG; Abha away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Damac or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Abha in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Damac's record when hosting Abha specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Damac
1
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 4, Abha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Abha 0-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Abha?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 44%, Abha 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Damac and 33% for Abha.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Abha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Damac's recent matches and 44% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Damac's recent games and 33% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Abha tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Abha in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Abha 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Abha 3-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.00 xG and Abha 0.92 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Abha outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against Abha attack 0.75 / defence 1.15, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 35% | Draw 35% | Abha 30%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 35%, Abha 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Abha's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.50 PPG, Abha 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Abha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.