Al Wehda Club 1-3 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Al Wehda Club welcome Al Shabab to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Shabab — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al Shabab's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al Wehda Club's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al Wehda Club, 2 for Al Shabab and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Al Shabab winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 59% versus Al Shabab 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 61% | Al Shabab 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.51 xG and Al Shabab 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.968 / defence 1.343 | Al Shabab attack 1.096 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.326. Data: 59 Al Wehda Club games / 59 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 30% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Al Shabab 2.08. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al Shabab 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 30% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.51 / Al Shabab 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.968 / def 1.343 | Al Shabab attack 1.096 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Al Shabab xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 3 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 30% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab?
Record (5 meetings): Al Wehda Club 3W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Wehda Club's attack at 0.97x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
30%
3.34
22%
4.57
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.46
1.95
Al Shabab xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
14%
7.04
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
4%
23.51
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.95 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 15W 11D 33L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 25W 12D 22L from 59 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Wehda Club.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Wehda Club have posted 1.07 PPG from 29 outings (8W 7D 14L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 9W 8D 12L from 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 15W 11D 33L in their last 59 games (0.95 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 25W 12D 22L in their last 59 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.07 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
3
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 3, Al Shabab have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-3 Al Shabab.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 69%, Al Shabab 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Al Wehda Club) and 48% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 34%; Al Shabab in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al Wehda Club's games and 45% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 48% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Wehda Club 1-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.51 xG and Al Shabab 1.95 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 1.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Al Shabab attack 1.10 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 30% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 48%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 61%, Al Shabab 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.