Al Taee 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Ittihad FC make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Wednesday 7 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Al Taee (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Al Taee have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ittihad FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al Taee against 0.90 for Al-Ittihad FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to Al-Ittihad FC, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Al Taee 0–2 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.

Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Al Taee half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 50% versus Al-Ittihad FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.43 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.118 / defence 1.164 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.982 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.395. Data: built from Al Taee's last 48 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 48.

Result probabilities: Al Taee 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.93 | Draw 4.07 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.43 / 1.59) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Ittihad FC 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taee's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Taee 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 30% (last 10 away games).

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