Al Taee 1-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Taee face Al-Hazm.

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Match Analysis

Al Taee host Al-Hazm at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 8 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Al Taee at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al Taee are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Hazm — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 7D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taee at 0.70 PPG versus Al-Hazm's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al Taee's games and 80% of Al-Hazm's (from Al Taee's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al Taee have won 2, Al-Hazm 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Al Taee 1–1 Al-Hazm — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al Taee in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 46% versus Al-Hazm 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 54% | Al-Hazm 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.83 xG and Al-Hazm 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.956 / defence 1.312 | Al-Hazm attack 0.979 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.498. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taee's projected output up. Al Taee's defence rating of 1.312 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Hazm's projected output up. Data: built from Al Taee's last 52 games and Al-Hazm's last 22.

Result probabilities: Al Taee 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.75 | Draw 4.20 | Al-Hazm 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.92) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hazm at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taee's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taee 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 80% (last 10 away games).

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