Al Taee 1-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 45%, yet in-form Al Taee provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Taee vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Al-Fateh travel to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to take on Al Taee. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 14 September 2022, 16:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taee stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Al Taee have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al Taee carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Taee, 0 for Al-Fateh and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Al Taee winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Taee in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 46% versus Al-Fateh 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 58% | Al-Fateh 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.05 xG and Al-Fateh 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.109 / defence 0.889 | Al-Fateh attack 1.428 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.106. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Al Taee games / 33 Al-Fateh games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Taee 28% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 2.22. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Taee (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 60% | Al-Fateh 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Sep 2022, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 28% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Taee 1.05 / Al-Fateh 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.109 / def 0.889 | Al-Fateh attack 1.428 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al-Fateh xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:55 on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Al Taee 1 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 28% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Fateh?
Record (2 meetings): Al Taee 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Fateh in?
Al Taee (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (1.11) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
28%
3.56
27%
3.73
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.45
1.40
Al-Fateh xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.40 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taee's recent record stands at 13W 4D 16L from 33 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 15L across 33 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taee on 1.30 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Taee have managed 8W 3D 5L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 5W 5D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taee are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.52 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 13W 4D 16L in their last 33 games (1.30 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Taee's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.69 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taee and Al-Fateh runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taee have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al Taee
0
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 6, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when Al Taee 3-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Fateh?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 62%, Al-Fateh 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Al Taee) and 38% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 38%; Al-Fateh in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al Taee's recent matches and 38% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Al Taee's recent games and 38% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taee and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taee defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.05 xG and Al-Fateh 1.40 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against Al-Fateh attack 1.43 / defence 0.84, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 28% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 45%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al Taee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 58%, Al-Fateh 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.30 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.