Al Taawon 3-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Taawoun Club Stadium plays host to Al Taawon versus Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 3W 5D 2L at Al Taawoun Club Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Damac (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Al Taawon, 0.90 for Damac — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al Taawon have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 7 meetings, with Damac managing just 0 victories and 4 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Al Taawon a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 47% versus Damac 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 39% | Damac 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.28 xG and Damac 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.889 / defence 0.953 | Damac attack 0.759 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.340. Data: 57 Al Taawon games / 57 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 44% | Draw 28% | Damac 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Damac 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 60% | Damac 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al Taawoun Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 44% | Draw 28% | Damac 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Taawon 1.28 / Damac 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.889 / def 0.953 | Damac attack 0.759 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Damac xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Damac kick off?
Al Taawon vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Damac?
Al Taawon 3 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al Taawon vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Damac part of?
Al Taawon vs Damac is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 44% chance of winning, Damac a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Taawon and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Damac?
Record (7 meetings): Al Taawon 3W | Draws 4 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Damac in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Damac (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (0.89) and Damac's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.76x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.54
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.25
0.97
Damac xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
8%
12.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.97 for Damac, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 57 games, going 24W 18D 15L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.14 PPG from 57 outings (16W 17D 24L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 13W 8D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.28 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 24W 18D 15L in their last 57 games (1.58 PPG), while Damac have gone 16W 17D 24L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Damac away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.68 PPG; Damac away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Damac in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 6-1 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
4
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Damac have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Damac 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Damac?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 54%, Damac 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al Taawon) and 46% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Damac in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al Taawon's games and 57% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al Taawon's recent games and 46% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Damac tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Damac in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Damac 3-0 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.28 xG and Damac 0.97 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Damac landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against Damac attack 0.76 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 44% | Draw 28% | Damac 28%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 39%, Damac 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Damac's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.