Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taawon host Al-Qadisiyah FC at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Taawon haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Taawon at Al Taawon Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al Taawon have won 2, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 65% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 53% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.26 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.967 / defence 1.026 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.403 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.400. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.403 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Al Taawon games / 35 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 24% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 80% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 24% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Taawon 1.26 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.967 / def 1.026 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.403 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 24% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
24%
4.23
22%
4.63
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
0 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.28
2.02
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
4.23
24%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
13%
7.50
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
3%
31.72
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al Taawon and 2.02 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 15W 8D 11L from 34 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. Al Taawon haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 8D 3L across 34 games — 2.26 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Taawon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 7W 5D 5L from 17 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 13W 1D 3L across 17 trips, a 2.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.44 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Pre-Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 8D 11L in their last 34 games (1.56 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 23W 8D 3L in their last 34 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.53 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2025, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
1
Draws
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Taawon at 65%, Al-Qadisiyah FC at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Al Taawon and 76% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al Taawon's games and 76% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al Taawon's matches and 76% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.