Al Taawon 3-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Al Okhdood travel to Al Taawon Club Stadium to take on Al Taawon. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 February 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 5W 2D 3L at Al Taawon Club Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawon Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taawon at 1.20 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Al Taawon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 65% versus Al Okhdood 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 50% | Al Okhdood 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.66 xG and Al Okhdood 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.045 / defence 1.096 | Al Okhdood attack 0.643 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.405. Data: 50 Al Taawon games / 20 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 53% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 22%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Al Okhdood 4.55. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 70% | Al Okhdood 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 53% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Taawon 1.66 / Al Okhdood 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.045 / def 1.096 | Al Okhdood attack 0.643 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al Okhdood xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Al Taawon 3 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 53% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Okhdood in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Al Okhdood (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Taawon's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
53%
1.90
25%
3.98
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.65
0.99
Al Okhdood xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
4%
23.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.99 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 10W 5D 5L from 20 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 11L across 20 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Okhdood heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 4W 2D 3L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Okhdood's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.80 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 games (1.75 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 7W 2D 11L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.56 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
1
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Al Taawon 1-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 78%, Al Okhdood 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Al Taawon) and 33% (Al Okhdood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Okhdood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Al Taawon's games and 33% of Al Okhdood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al Taawon's matches and 33% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al Taawon and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Okhdood 3-1 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.66 xG and Al Okhdood 0.99 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Al Okhdood attack 0.64 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 53% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 22%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 50%, Al Okhdood 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.