Al Taawon 0-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 January 2022 at 11:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 games at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City this term (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 5W 1D 3L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Nassr — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Taawon, 1 for Al-Nassr and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al-Nassr trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 82% and Al-Nassr 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Taawon 76% | Al-Nassr 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.14 xG and Al-Nassr 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.174 / defence 1.188 | Al-Nassr attack 0.962 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.176. Data: 17 Al Taawon games / 17 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 31% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Nassr 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 75% | Al-Nassr 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 11:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 31% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Taawon 1.14 / Al-Nassr 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.174 / def 1.188 | Al-Nassr attack 0.962 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Nassr xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 11:40 on Friday 21 January 2022 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Al Taawon 0 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 31% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Nassr?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 1.17x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
31%
3.27
29%
3.41
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.49
1.34
Al-Nassr xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.34 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 5D 8L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 10W 2D 5L from 17 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 5W 1D 2L from 8 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.76 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 10W 2D 5L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2025, when Al-Nassr won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
2
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 75%, Al-Nassr 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al Taawon) and 38% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al Taawon's games and 50% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al Taawon's recent games and 38% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Taawon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Taawon 0-1 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.14 xG and Al-Nassr 1.34 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.17 / defence 1.19 against Al-Nassr attack 0.96 / defence 0.88, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 31% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 40%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 76%, Al-Nassr 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.