Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 6 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al Taawon's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Al Taawon have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al Taawon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.20 PPG clear of Al Taawon over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC edge it 2 wins to 1, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2024, ended Al Taawon 1–2 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 46% versus Al-Ittihad FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 36% | Al-Ittihad FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.07 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.795 / defence 0.839 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.075 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.336. Al Taawon's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 52 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 52.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.07 | Draw 3.51 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 19 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Al Taawon 1.07 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.795 / def 0.839 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.075 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al-Ittihad FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Thursday 6 February 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Taawon 1 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 19) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 33% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.07x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Al Taawon's last 52 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
33%
3.07
28%
3.51
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.28
1.20
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.20 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon come into this having played 52 games, going 22W 17D 13L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 1.92 PPG from 52 outings (31W 7D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.92 for Al-Ittihad FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Taawon's home form reads 12W 7D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.64 points per game from their last 25 away games (12W 5D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.06 scored and 1.37 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's attacking output running into Al Taawon's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 63%.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Taawon (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC Form FAQs
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 22W 17D 13L in their last 52 games (1.60 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 31W 7D 14L in their last 52 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.72 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 29 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al Taawon on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Taawon
4
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 April 2026: Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 52%, Al-Ittihad FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Taawon) and 56% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Ittihad FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 52% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al Taawon's recent games and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ittihad FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 68% of Al-Ittihad FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Taawon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taawon 1-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.07 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.80 / defence 0.84 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 39%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 36%, Al-Ittihad FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.60 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.