Al Taawon 0-4 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 May 2022 at 17:20 UTC.
Form
Al Taawon (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al Taawon 1W, Al-Ettifaq 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 79% and Al-Ettifaq 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 58% | Al-Ettifaq 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.50 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.973 / defence 1.219 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.760 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.086. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Al Taawon games / 24 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 4.00. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 May 2022, 17:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Taawon 1.50 / Al-Ettifaq 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.973 / def 1.219 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.760 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al-Ettifaq xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 17:20 on Thursday 5 May 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taawon 0 - 4 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.76x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.86
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.51
1.01
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
6%
17.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.01 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 5W 10D 9L from 24 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 10L across 24 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.00 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 3W 5D 4L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.17 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 5W 10D 9L in their last 24 games (1.04 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-4 on 5 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
2
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 75%, Al-Ettifaq 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Taawon) and 58% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al Taawon's games and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Taawon's recent games and 58% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ettifaq run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Taawon 0-4 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.50 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.01 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.97 / defence 1.22 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.76 / defence 1.30, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 25%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ettifaq win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 58%, Al-Ettifaq 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.04 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.