Al Taawon 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 36%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 16:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — a 0.33 PPG return. Last five: D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.67 conceded. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 0W 3D 0L from 3 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.00 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Al Taawon's 0.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 100% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Taawon 100% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.41 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.888 / defence 1.256 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.931 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.112. Data: 3 Al Taawon games / 3 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 100% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Taawon 1.41 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.888 / def 1.256 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.931 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 16:50 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 D-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 0W-3D-0L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.89x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
36%
2.77
33%
3.06
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.71
1.30
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.30 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Taawon
2
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Taawon at 100%, Al-Ahli Jeddah at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al Taawon and 33% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Taawon's games and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Taawon's matches and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 4, as Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.41 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.30 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.89 / defence 1.26 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.93 / defence 1.18, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 36% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 31%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 100%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Taawon conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.