Al Shabab 4-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 1W 1D 5L across 7 Pro League outings this term — 0.57 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.83 in Al Shabab's favour (2.40 vs 0.57) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Shabab 29% | Al Khaleej Saihat 29%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 57% | Al Khaleej Saihat 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.14 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.277 / defence 0.673 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.675 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.118. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Al Shabab games / 7 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 75% | Draw 18% | Al Khaleej Saihat 7%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.33 | Draw 5.56 | Al Khaleej Saihat 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (75%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 75% | Draw 18% | Al Khaleej Saihat 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 36% | xG Al Shabab 2.14 / Al Khaleej Saihat 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.277 / def 0.673 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.675 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
36%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Shabab 4 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 75% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 7% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.28) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.68x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.51.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 3-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
75%
1.33
18%
5.57
7%
14.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
3 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.65
0.51
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.57
18%
Draw
14.22
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
60%
1.66
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
45%
2.22
1%
121.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 7.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.2 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.51 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Shabab come into this having played 7 games, going 6W 1D 0L for 2.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.14 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Shabab's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Khaleej Saihat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.43 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 29%.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 6W 1D 0L in their last 7 games (2.71 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Shabab's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 3.00 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al Shabab
2
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 4, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Al Shabab) and 33% (Al Khaleej Saihat) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Shabab and 67% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 33% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Shabab's matches and 67% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al Shabab and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Khaleej Saihat 4-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.14 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.51 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.28 / defence 0.67 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.68 / defence 1.35, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 75% | Draw 18% | Al Khaleej Saihat 7%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 57%, Al Khaleej Saihat 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.