Al Shabab 3-0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Al Shabab against 2.30 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Shabab lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 55% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 61% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.30 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.164 / defence 0.822 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.370 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.333. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Al Shabab games / 51 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Shabab 40% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Shabab 1.30 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.164 / def 0.822 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.370 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Shabab 3 - 0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 32% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Shabab 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.37x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
32%
3.15
27%
3.64
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.81
1.50
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.50 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 28W 15D 8L from 51 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 33W 13D 5L across 51 games — 2.20 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.94 PPG for Al Shabab against 2.20 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 17W 6D 2L from 25 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 15W 9D 1L across 25 trips, a 2.16 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.04 scored and 0.88 conceded. Al Shabab's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 28W 15D 8L in their last 51 games (1.94 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 33W 13D 5L in their last 51 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.28 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.16 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5-0 on 17 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
3
Draws
6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al Shabab 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 40%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Shabab) and 48% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 52% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al Shabab's recent games and 48% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.30 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.50 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.37 / defence 0.80, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Shabab win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 61%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.94 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.