Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Al Shabab welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Shabab at 2.20 PPG versus Al-Fateh's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 2 for Al-Fateh and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 1–4 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 56% versus Al-Fateh 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 63% | Al-Fateh 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.61 xG and Al-Fateh 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.234 / defence 0.794 | Al-Fateh attack 1.236 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.239. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Al Shabab games / 54 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fateh 3.45. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 40% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Shabab 1.61 / Al-Fateh 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.234 / def 0.794 | Al-Fateh attack 1.236 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Al Shabab 1 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 46% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al Shabab 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.23x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
46%
2.15
25%
4.03
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.83
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.22 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 30W 15D 9L from 54 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 22L across 54 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Shabab by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 18W 6D 2L from 26 games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 10W 6D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.59 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 30W 15D 9L in their last 54 games (1.94 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.31 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
4
Draws
4
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 38%, Al-Fateh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Shabab) and 54% (Al-Fateh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 31%; Al-Fateh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al Shabab's matches and 54% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Fateh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.61 xG and Al-Fateh 1.22 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.23 / defence 0.79 against Al-Fateh attack 1.24 / defence 0.89, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 29%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 63%, Al-Fateh 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.