Al Shabab 0-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Shabab host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Shabab are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2022, ended 4–3 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 55% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 59% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.44 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.084 / defence 0.969 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.800 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.331. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Al Shabab games / 29 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.70. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Shabab 1.44 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.084 / def 0.969 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.800 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Shabab 0 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 47% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (1 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
47%
2.15
26%
3.78
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.47
1.03
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
6%
15.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.03 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 15W 9D 5L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 6W 13D 10L from 29 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.21 PPG from 14 outings (9W 4D 1L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 6D 6L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.31 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 15W 9D 5L in their last 29 games (1.86 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 13D 10L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.21 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Shabab) and 36% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 57% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al Shabab's recent games and 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Shabab's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.44 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.03 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.80 / defence 1.24, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 27%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 59%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.