Al Riyadh 1-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Riyadh face Al Taawon.

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Analysis & Preview

Al Taawon travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Riyadh in Pro League (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 15:10 UK time.

Form Guide

Al Riyadh — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Al Riyadh have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Al Taawon have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Riyadh at 1.50 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Riyadh, 0 for Al Taawon and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2024, ended Al Riyadh 0–0 Al Taawon — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 57% versus Al Taawon 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 55% | Al Taawon 39%). Note also that Al Taawon surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Al Riyadh recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.00 xG and Al Taawon 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.897 / defence 0.898 | Al Taawon attack 0.914 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.457. Al Taawon bring a tight defence (rating 0.780, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Riyadh's projected output down. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 49 games and Al Taawon's last 49.

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 30% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 3.28 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taawon 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 30% (last 10 away games).

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