Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hazm make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Riyadh in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 20 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al Riyadh (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Al Riyadh, 1.20 for Al-Hazm — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al Riyadh 0W, Al-Hazm 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 60% versus Al-Hazm 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 50% | Al-Hazm 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.33 xG and Al-Hazm 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.886 / defence 0.930 | Al-Hazm attack 0.900 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Data: 42 Al Riyadh games / 43 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 37% | Draw 35% | Al-Hazm 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Hazm 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Riyadh 30% | Al-Hazm 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 37% | Draw 35% | Al-Hazm 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Riyadh 1.33 / Al-Hazm 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.886 / def 0.930 | Al-Hazm attack 0.900 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 37% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm?
Record (4 meetings): Al Riyadh 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.89) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.90x) against Al Riyadh's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
37%
2.72
35%
2.89
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.49
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.16 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 9W 12D 21L from 42 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 18L across 42 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Al Riyadh against 1.19 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 4W 7D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.12 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 9W 12D 21L in their last 42 games (0.93 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.30 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Riyadh
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 50%, Al-Hazm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Al Riyadh) and 60% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Riyadh's games and 60% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 60% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.