Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Fahd International Stadium plays host to Al Riyadh versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Thursday 9 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al Riyadh (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's home record at King Fahd International Stadium: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Pro League appearances (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Al-Fateh have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al-Fateh are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 42% and Al-Fateh 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Riyadh 67% | Al-Fateh 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.07 xG and Al-Fateh 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.729 / defence 1.186 | Al-Fateh attack 1.225 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.377. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Al Riyadh games / 42 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 20% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 59%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Riyadh 33% | Al-Fateh 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 20% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Riyadh 1.07 / Al-Fateh 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.729 / def 1.186 | Al-Fateh attack 1.225 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Al-Fateh xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 9 November 2023 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Al Riyadh 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 20% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.73) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.23x) against Al Riyadh's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
20%
5.11
22%
4.60
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
3.07
2.00
Al-Fateh xG
5.11
20%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
14%
7.39
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
3%
37.74
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 2.00 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Riyadh come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 2D 7L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Riyadh's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 2.17 points per game from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Riyadh are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 2.33 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 83%.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 2.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Riyadh
3
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Al Riyadh, 100% for Al-Fateh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Riyadh and 100% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al Riyadh's games and 100% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Riyadh's matches and 100% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Al Riyadh and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.07 xG and Al-Fateh 2.00 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.73 / defence 1.19 against Al-Fateh attack 1.23 / defence 0.96, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 20% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 59%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 67%, Al-Fateh 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.