Al-Raed 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 49%, yet in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Raid Club Stadium plays host to Al-Raed versus Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Tuesday 27 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Raed's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed at Al Raid Club Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the stronger side — 1.90 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.50 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.948 / defence 0.968 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.202. Data: 35 Al-Raed games / 1 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 4.00. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al Raid Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Raed 1.50 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.948 / def 0.968 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Raed 0 - 1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 49% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (0.85x) against Al-Raed's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.85
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.49
0.99
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
6%
18.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.99 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Raed come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Raed are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking output running into Al-Raed's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Al-Raed or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Raed
0
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2025, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 0% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Raed's recent games and 100% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Raed 0-1 at Al Raid Club Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.50 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 49% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 25%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Al-Qadisiyah FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 0%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Raed managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Qadisiyah FC managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.