Al-Raed 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Raed face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 May 2025, 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al-Raed have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Al-Raed.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 2–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 56% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Raed 57% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.94 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.679 / defence 1.151 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.219 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.403. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Al-Raed games / 63 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 17% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 May 2025, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 17% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Raed 0.94 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.679 / def 1.151 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.219 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:15 on Wednesday 7 May 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Raed 3 - 5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 17% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.68) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
17%
5.91
22%
4.48
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.91
1.97
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.91
17%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
14%
7.16
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
2%
42.34
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.97 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 15W 13D 35L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 50W 8D 5L from 63 games, 2.51 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Raed have posted 0.87 PPG from 31 outings (7W 6D 18L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 23W 5D 3L from 31 away games — 2.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.86 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 15W 13D 35L in their last 63 games (0.92 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 50W 8D 5L in their last 63 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 0.87 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.39 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al-Raed
1
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2025, when Al-Raed 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 52%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al-Raed and 71% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 39%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Raed's games and 61% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Raed's matches and 71% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Raed 3-5 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.94 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.68 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 17% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 57%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.