Al Okhdood 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Al Okhdood (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al Okhdood, 1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Al Okhdood winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 48% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 48% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.95 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.827 / defence 1.219 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.858 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.468. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Al Okhdood games / 46 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.96. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Okhdood 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Okhdood 0.95 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.827 / def 1.219 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.858 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Okhdood 0 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 23% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (4 meetings): Al Okhdood 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.86x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
23%
4.30
26%
3.89
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.48
1.54
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
4.30
23%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
5%
19.99
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.54 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Al Okhdood have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 10W 9D 27L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 28W 8D 10L from 46 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Okhdood have posted 0.77 PPG from 22 outings (4W 5D 13L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 13W 2D 7L from 22 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.89 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 10W 9D 27L in their last 46 games (0.85 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 28W 8D 10L in their last 46 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.77 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 64%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al Okhdood) and 36% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Okhdood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Okhdood 0-1 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.95 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.86 / defence 0.77, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 48%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.