Al Okhdood 2-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to face Al Okhdood in Pro League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Al Okhdood (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2024, ended Al Okhdood 1–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 48% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Okhdood surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Al-Ahli Jeddah have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.72 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.669 / defence 1.180 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.211 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.304. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.669 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a tight defence (rating 0.706, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Okhdood's projected output down. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack rating of 1.211, which lifts their away xG to 1.86. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 58 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 58.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 14% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 7.23 | Draw 4.62 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (65%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 14% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Al Okhdood 0.72 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.669 / def 1.180 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.211 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah FAQs
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Okhdood 2 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 14% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 65% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.21x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from Al Okhdood's last 58 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
14%
7.23
22%
4.62
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.59
1.86
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
7.23
14%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
49%
2.06
Win to Nil
2%
46.68
31%
3.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.86 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Al Okhdood have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 13W 11D 34L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 34W 11D 13L from 58 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Okhdood have posted 0.86 PPG from their last 29 home games (7W 4D 18L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 15W 5D 9L from their last 29 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.97 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Okhdood (Home) vs Al-Ahli Jeddah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Form FAQs
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 13W 11D 34L in their last 58 games (0.86 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 34W 11D 13L in their last 58 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.86 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al Okhdood on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 52%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al Okhdood) and 59% (Al-Ahli Jeddah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 34%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 52% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Okhdood's matches and 59% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 72% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-1 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.72 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.86 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Okhdood beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.67 / defence 1.18 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.21 / defence 0.71, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 14% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 52%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Al Okhdood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.