Al-Nassr 1-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Wehda Club make the trip to Mrsool Park to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Nassr haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 7W 2D 1L at Mrsool Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.62 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.181 / defence 0.998 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.302. Data: 30 Al-Nassr games / 0 Al Wehda Club games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 25% | Al Wehda Club 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Al Wehda Club 3.85. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 25% | Al Wehda Club 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Nassr 1.62 / Al Wehda Club 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.181 / def 0.998 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al Wehda Club xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Nassr 1 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 49% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.18) and Al Wehda Club's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Wehda Club's attack (0.85x) against Al-Nassr's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.05
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.73
1.10
Al Wehda Club xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
5%
19.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.10 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Pre-Season
Al Wehda Club
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 6-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 6, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al Wehda Club 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Wehda Club 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Wehda Club 1-0 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.62 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.10 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wehda Club landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.18 / defence 1.00 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 25% | Al Wehda Club 26%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.